idea · Geopolitics
A live 'euphemism index' for official statements
Score government and central-bank language by how far the words sit from the facts. Watch the gap widen before the crisis is admitted.
The premise: institutions lie slowly, in vocabulary, before they lie quickly, in numbers.
Build a small model that scores official statements on a ‘euphemism distance’ — how much softer the language is than the underlying data. Track the index per country / institution over time.
Why it could work: the gap tends to widen before an official reversal. ‘Transitory’, ‘contained’, ‘monitoring the situation’ are leading indicators, not descriptions.
Steal it: the second-brain already ingests the statements and the data. Someone just has to point them at each other and keep score.