The Ouroboros Ledger — Filing No. 3

The first loan in the loop has a price below par.

Filing No. 2 recorded a supplier writing its guarantees down. In September the register's first market price appeared: Oracle served a force majeure notice on the landlord of its Project Jupiter campus, and the roughly $18bn construction loan behind it was reported trading at 89–91 cents. Oracle's backlog meanwhile rose to $664bn in a quarter in which it spent $28.5bn on capital expenditure and sold $19.9bn of its own stock. Against that, the revenue is real, the court stay on Jupiter was lifted, and a major financier repaid $25.9bn early. This filing records all of it, including what we declined to register.

Incomplete — filed as observed

TABLE A

The standing six

Same six rows, same order, every filing. Prior column now populated from Filing No. 2. Two rows moved on new observations, one changed procedurally, three have no new observation or no change, and say so.

Measure	This filing	Prior (No. 2)	Source · origin
Oracle RPO vs. revenue	$664bn RPO $19.3bn Q1 FY27 revenue ratio 8.6× annualised (+0.3×) RPO +$26bn on the quarter	$638bn RPO $19.2bn Q4 revenue ratio 8.3× annualised	Oracle Q1 FY27 release 10 Sep 2026 and Form 10-Q 11 Sep 2026 · company-issued
CoreWeave backlog vs. guidance	no new observation carried forward: ≈8.1×	$104bn backlog $12.4–13.2bn FY26 guidance ratio ≈8.1×	Next periodic report due November · company-issued
Contracted power vs. drawing power	no new observation carried forward: ≈41% energised	3.7 GW contracted 1.5 GW active ≈41% energised	Next periodic report due November · company-issued
Queue requested vs. expected to build	ERCOT queue reported above 474 GW Batch Zero provisional list: 362 projects, 194.3 GW (66.4 GW base load + 127.9 GW studied load) verification report due 10 Dec 2026	Queue reported above 410 GW Batch Zero paused; no large load authorised to energise pending audit	ERCOT Batch Zero update, board meeting 14–15 Sep 2026; queue total from trade press · independent of the companies · bases differ, not like for like
Accounting life vs. silicon cadence	5.0 – 6.0 yr schedules 12–24 mo architecture cycle Oracle: servers six years, no change disclosed	5.0 – 6.0 yr schedules 12–24 mo architecture cycle	Oracle Form 10-Q, 11 Sep 2026; no other tracked filer filed a periodic report in September (EDGAR submissions checked) · company-issued
Cost allocated to ratepayers	$29.4bn across four base auctions 46% of $63.6bn total charges measure unchanged backstop auction did not open on its filed date after FERC order	$29.4bn across four base auctions backstop auction filed: up to $20bn more	Monitoring Analytics, 20 Jul 2026 (unchanged); FERC order 29 Sep 2026, reported 30 Sep · independent of the companies

Two of six rows come from outside the companies being measured. Neither of them moved this month; the one that changed did so because a regulator refused something.

Editorial — outside the evidence The Oracle row now has two readings and we decline to pick one. The ratio rose three tenths because backlog grew faster than a quarter of revenue. It also tells you that 87% of that backlog is scheduled to be recognised after the next twelve months. A promise with a long fuse and a short balance sheet is still a promise. It is also not a lie.

Observable coverage — enumerated, not estimated

Announced projects with a located, sourced record 12 of 18 (unchanged)
Financings traced to a filing or issuance 10 of 15 (was 7 of 12)
Private credit vehicles with disclosed terms 1 of 5 (unchanged)
Utilisation figures obtained 0 of 6 entities (unchanged)
End-user revenue attributed to a specific obligation 0 (unchanged)

The three added financings are CoreWeave's convertible notes, Amazon's sterling notes and Oracle's at-the-market equity programme, each traced to a filing. Oracle's $664bn is the largest single figure in this register, and its 10-Q and release name no customer concentration in the passages reviewed, so none of it can be attributed to a named obligation. We do not publish a coverage percentage. Counted denominators only.

SECTION 1

Registrations

Assumptions live: 3 · Registered this filing: 0 · Promoted: 0 · Retired: 0

ASM-01 · Assumption Abilene. Born 21 January 2025: $500bn of US AI infrastructure over four years, 10 GW targeted, announced by OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank and MGX as Stargate LLC. Carried forward unchanged. A downstream measure moved this month: Oracle's remaining performance obligations reached $664bn (Section 2), and Oracle's Project Jupiter campus drew a force majeure notice (Section 6).

Independent paying end-user revenue attributable to ASM-01: not disclosed

Origin: joint announcement · family: company-issued · independent origins: 0 · age 20 months

ASM-02 · Assumption Ohio. Carried forward at E4: Nvidia's guarantees for the SB Energy PORTS-Pike campus, capped at $105bn, effective in phases from fiscal 2029. Nvidia's only September 8-K, filed 3 September, reports its $11.9bn agreement to acquire Hugging Face and nothing on this arrangement. No change located.

Origin: Nvidia Form 8-K 17 Aug 2026 and CFO commentary 26 Aug 2026; EDGAR submissions checked for September · family: company-issued · next Nvidia periodic disclosure not expected before late November

ASM-03 · Assumption Wall Street. Carried forward at E1: memoranda of understanding with six institutions, over $500bn of intended third-party capital, expressly subject to definitive agreements. No definitive agreement or first close was filed by Nvidia in September. Capital actually committed: not disclosed

Origin: Nvidia press release 10 Aug 2026 · family: company-issued · independent origins: 0 · absence confirmed against Nvidia's EDGAR list only, not against the counterparties'

SECTION 2

Credit extended

Commitments recorded to date: 17 · Registered this filing: 4 · Disclosed guarantee exposure at one supplier: $108.5bn (unchanged)

Oracle: backlog $664bn, burn $5bn, funded partly by stock. Remaining performance obligations were $664bn at 31 August 2026, up from $638bn, with about 13% — roughly $86bn by our arithmetic — expected to be recognised within twelve months, 37% in months 13–36, 34% in months 37–60 and the rest after. Quarterly revenue was $19.3bn, up 30%; free cash flow was negative $5bn; capital expenditure was $28.5bn. Oracle completed a $20bn at-the-market equity programme in the quarter ($19.909bn issued per the equity statement), repaid $4.202bn of senior notes and term loans, and carried about $125bn of notes outstanding at quarter end.

Origin: Oracle Q1 FY27 release, 10 Sep 2026, and Form 10-Q, 11 Sep 2026 · family: company-issued · E5 — disclosed in a filing · the 13% share-of-twelve-months dollar figure is computed here, not stated by Oracle

Editorial — outside the evidence Last quarter's question was how a company could spend this much. This quarter it answered, partly, by selling twenty billion dollars of its own shares. That is the least circular way to fund a circle, and it is paid for by people who did not sign anything.

CoreWeave priced $3.7bn of 2.875% convertible senior notes due 1 April 2033, upsized from $3.0bn, with a conversion price of about $97.85, a 22.5% premium to $79.88. The company spent about $498.8m of proceeds on capped calls with a cap price of $199.70; the remainder goes to general corporate purposes. The senior notes recorded in Filing No. 2 carried 9.00%, 9.625% and 9.75%.

Origin: CoreWeave Form 8-K and exhibit 99.1 pricing release, 17–22 Sep 2026 · family: company-issued · E5

Editorial — outside the evidence A coupon of 2.875% is the price of the cheapest money in this register. The other price is the option to own the company at $97.85, and the capped call, which cost the company 13.5% of the principal by our arithmetic, exists because the issuer expects the option to matter.

Amazon priced £4.25bn of sterling notes on 9 September in four tranches: £1.25bn at 5.200% due 2029, £1.0bn at 5.550% due 2032, £1.0bn at 6.250% due 2038 and £1.0bn at 6.650% due 2045. Net proceeds of about £4.231bn are for general corporate purposes, a list that includes capital expenditures, debt repayment, acquisitions and share repurchases.

Origin: Amazon Form 424B5, 11 Sep 2026 (final terms) · family: company-issued · E5 · the prospectus does not tie the proceeds to AI infrastructure and this filing does not either

SoftBank announced on 9 September that it would prepay, on 15 September, the entire outstanding $25.9bn under the bridge facility taken out for follow-on investments in OpenAI. The facility totals $40.0bn, of which $30.0bn had been drawn. The release names no refinancing source.

Origin: SoftBank Group press release, 9 Sep 2026 · family: company-issued · E5 · entered again in Section 7, because repayment of a credit is evidence the credit was serviceable

SECTION 3

Multiplicity

Highest observed multiplicity: 8 descendant claims from one campus (unchanged) · Independent origin families among them: 1 (unchanged) · Registered this filing: 1, a gap

Oracle's $664bn is unmapped. In the press release and the 10-Q passages reviewed, Oracle names no customer concentration and no contract. Several of this register's campuses — Jupiter, Abilene — involve Oracle, and OpenAI is among the named users of Jupiter, but the share of $664bn that descends from any one of them cannot be computed from what is filed. The multiplicity of that number is therefore not zero. It is unobserved.

Origin: Oracle Q1 FY27 release and Form 10-Q · family: company-issued · E2 · based on the passages reviewed, not a full read of the filing

SECTION 4

Concrete

Capex at one operator in one quarter: $28.5bn (Oracle, was $8.5bn a year earlier) · CoreWeave property and equipment: $46.7bn (carried; next report November)

Oracle's capital expenditure was $28.499bn in the three months to 31 August 2026, against $8.5bn in the same quarter a year earlier — 3.4 times. Unpaid capital commitments recorded in the cash flow statement were $6.247bn. Servers continue to be depreciated over six years; no change in estimate is disclosed.

Origin: Oracle Form 10-Q, 11 Sep 2026 · family: company-issued · E5 · the multiple is computed here

Texas sorted its queue and attached no dates. On 3 September ERCOT gave transmission providers provisional Batch Zero classifications: 204 projects (66.4 GW) conditionally included as base load and 158 projects (127.9 GW) as studied load, 362 projects and 194.3 GW in all. Final inclusion depends on a verification and audit whose report is due to the Commission by 10 December 2026. Conditional inclusion is not interconnection approval and sets no energisation date.

Origin: ERCOT Batch Zero update, board meeting 14–15 Sep 2026; law-firm and trade summaries of the 3 Sep classification · family: grid operator — independent of the companies · E4, because this desk could not retrieve the ERCOT PDF directly (HTTP 403) and read the figures through search extracts of it

Editorial — outside the evidence Prediction P-04 asked whether the pause would bind or clear. It has done neither. It has acquired a spreadsheet, and the spreadsheet's fate arrives on 10 December.

Abilene buildings three and four were not re-checked this cycle. CoreWeave's property and equipment is carried from Filing No. 2 at $46.736bn pending its next periodic report. Nothing in this section is inferred.

Origin: this filing · family: self · recorded as not observed rather than left blank

SECTION 5

The bag holder ledger

Entries: 9 (two added) · Cost documented as allocated outside the AI sector: $29.4bn (unchanged) · Market-priced stress on a loan in the loop: 1 (was 0)

PJM-region ratepayers. Data centres accounted for $6.3bn — 38% — of the $16.4bn charged in PJM's most recent base capacity auction, and $29.4bn of the $63.6bn charged across the last four, or 46%, according to the grid operator's independent market monitor. Carried forward unchanged. Monitoring Analytics, reported 20 Jul 2026 · independent of the companies
Households inside the next auction — amended. PJM's one-time reliability backstop auction was filed for 30 September – 21 October 2026 after a 6.8 GW shortfall for the 2028 delivery year, with a proposed cap of $555 per MW-day. On 29 September FERC approved the plan in part and rejected elements on cost allocation, transmission-owner exit rules and load-serving-entity collateral. PJM has not announced a revised schedule. The ceiling of up to $20bn in new plant cost remains a third-party estimate. PJM FERC docket ER26-3380; FERC order 29 Sep 2026 as reported by Utility Dive 30 Sep · independent of the companies · E4
PPL residential customers, Pennsylvania. Distribution rates rose 4.9% on 1 July 2026 — roughly $7.42 a month on 1,000 kWh, plus a $15 fixed charge. Carried forward unchanged. PUC settlement · independent of the companies
Lenders at the high end of the coupon. At one operator: $3.663bn of non-recourse debt, senior notes at 9.00%, 9.625% and 9.75%, and as of September a further $3.7bn of 2.875% converts whose holders were sold the equity option instead of a coupon. Carried forward. CoreWeave Form 10-Q, 12 Aug 2026, and Form 8-K, Sep 2026 · company-issued
Counties and municipalities. Twenty-four states had approved at least one large-load tariff by June 2026. Pataskala City Council, Licking County, Ohio rejected Aligned Data Centers' 200 MW site plan in August; the question of banning large data centres goes to voters in Pataskala and Granville in November. Carried forward. Council vote and ballot certification, Aug 2026 · independent of the companies
Nvidia shareholders. $108.5bn of maximum gross guarantee exposure, contingent on counterparty default. Carried forward unchanged. Nvidia Q2 FY27 CFO commentary · company-issued
Lenders to Project Jupiter. New entry. A construction loan of about $18bn arranged by roughly 20 banks for the STACK/Blue Owl campus in Santa Teresa, New Mexico was reported trading at 89–91 cents on the dollar after Oracle served a force majeure notice on 24 September. Oracle's shares fell 3.47% on the report. The price is secondary reporting; this desk has not seen a quote screen. Searchlight New Mexico, 25 Sep 2026, and other reporting of the notice · family: media · E2 for the price · the notice itself is entered at E4 in Section 6
Oracle shareholders. New entry. $19.909bn of common stock issued through the at-the-market programme in a single quarter, to help fund $28.5bn of capital expenditure. It is permanent capital with no maturity, and every existing holder bears the dilution. Oracle Form 10-Q, 11 Sep 2026 · company-issued · E5 · same underlying disclosure as Section 2, counted from the holder's side
Taxpayers, via abatement. Cumulative value of abatements granted to entities in this filing: still not compiled — third filing running EMMA and county records · not yet worked

Editorial — outside the evidence Entry seven is the one this register was built to find: a number in the loop with a price that was not set by the party that issued it. Oracle calls the notice precautionary and says the project remains on schedule, which may be exactly right. The loan market is not required to agree, and for one week it did not. Entry nine is now three filings old. It has stopped being a gap and become a habit.

SECTION 6

Withdrawals and amendments

Registered this filing: 5 · New ceiling value revised away: $0 (was ≈$145bn) · Physical infrastructure stayed: 1 site (was 2; Jupiter's stays lifted)

Oracle served a force majeure notice on the Project Jupiter developer. Oracle issued the notice on 24 September to Blue Owl Capital, owner of STACK Infrastructure, the developer of the 2.45 GW Santa Teresa campus. As reported, it would let Oracle defer the higher rent if the campus misses its 2028 opening, and it follows two denials by the State Land Office of the gas pipeline route that feeds the on-site fuel-cell microgrid. The pipeline's in-service target has moved from August 2026 to February 2027, and the state air permit deadline is 23 November 2026. Oracle says the notices "do not, by themselves, establish a project delay" and that the campus remains on its 2028 schedule; STACK, Blue Owl and Oracle say they remain aligned.

Origins: ENR, 28 Sep 2026 (notice date, Oracle statement, pipeline and permit dates); Searchlight New Mexico, 25 Sep 2026; Datacenter Dynamics and others · family: media quoting company statements · E4 · the notice is not itself a public filing

Editorial — outside the evidence Force majeure is the legal term for something nobody could have foreseen. This was a pipeline that had been refused twice. Oracle's lawyers will say the clause is routine and its critics will say the delay was foreseeable; both can be true, and only one of them is a debt priced under ninety.

Amended: the Project Jupiter stays are lifted. The New Mexico Supreme Court on 17 September unanimously rejected two environmental groups' challenges and unpaused the air quality and water proceedings it had frozen since 23 August. A request by the developers to resume part of the process earlier was denied on 1 September. Filing No. 2 counted two stays at this site as the register's first physical withdrawals. They are removed from the count.

Origins: Source New Mexico, 1 and 17 Sep 2026; KUNM, 18 Sep 2026 · family: judiciary — independent of the companies · E4 · this desk read the reports through search extracts, the pages returned HTTP 403

FERC rejected parts of PJM's backstop procurement. The Commission on 29 September approved PJM's plan in part and rejected its cost allocation methodology, transmission-owner exit rules and load-serving-entity collateral requirements, as reported. The chair called the mechanism a "deeply flawed, eleventh-hour procurement mechanism." The auction did not open on its filed date and no new schedule exists.

Origin: Utility Dive, 30 Sep 2026, reporting the FERC order · family: media reporting a regulator · E4 · see Section 5 for the amended ledger entry

Microsoft changed its reporting structure. A Form 8-K filed 2 September states that from fiscal 2027 the company will report two segments, Agents and Infra, and Devices and Consumer, and posted historical figures restated on the new basis. Whether the new structure preserves a separately reported infrastructure line is not established by this desk and is to be checked against Microsoft's first FY27 report.

Origin: Microsoft Form 8-K, 2 Sep 2026 · family: company-issued · E5 for the change, comparability unassessed

Declined at the gate, and why it is recorded. Two items were found this cycle and not registered. A Texas city council's unanimous rejection of a 600 MW campus land sale, dated 11 September, turned out to be 11 September 2025. A CoreWeave capacity item carried on 17 September as news was a machine-written republication of August data. Neither would have survived a primary-source check; both would have survived a skim.

Origin: this filing · family: self · corrections are published as amendments, not as silent edits

SECTION 7

For the defence

Filings accepted this filing: 6 · Filings rejected: 0 · One removed entry in Section 6 (the Jupiter stays) was evidence for the thesis and is recorded as such.

Oracle's revenue is real and accelerating. First-quarter FY27 total revenue was $19.3bn, up 30%; cloud infrastructure revenue was $7.4bn, up 121%; Oracle guided to at least $90bn of total revenue for FY27.

Origin: Oracle Q1 FY27 release, 10 Sep 2026 · family: company-issued · E5 · accepted — this is settled revenue, not backlog

Oracle funded part of the burn with equity, not debt. Of the quarter's negative $5bn of free cash flow and $28.5bn of capital expenditure, $19.9bn was raised by selling shares and $4.2bn of notes and term loans was repaid. The funding mix moved toward capital that cannot default.

Origin: Oracle Form 10-Q, 11 Sep 2026 · family: company-issued · E5 · accepted, with the dilution recorded in Section 5

A financier retired a credit early. SoftBank prepaid $25.9bn of its OpenAI bridge facility on 15 September, ahead of schedule.

Origin: SoftBank Group press release, 9 Sep 2026 · family: company-issued · E5 · accepted, with the caveat that the release names no refinancing source, so the debt may have been moved rather than retired

The legal stays on Jupiter were lifted. The state's top court rejected both challenges on 17 September and allowed permitting to resume. Whatever else is wrong at that site, the judiciary is no longer one of the things stopping it.

Origin: Source New Mexico and KUNM, 17–18 Sep 2026 · family: judiciary — independent · E4 · accepted

The grid's gatekeepers are acting, not waiting. FERC declined to approve an eleventh-hour mechanism that would have moved costs onto consumers by schedule, and ERCOT has put every queued gigawatt on a dated audit calendar. Both are refusals to take the load on trust.

Origins: FERC order 29 Sep 2026 as reported; ERCOT board update 14–15 Sep 2026 · family: regulators — independent · E4 · accepted

Oracle's Executive Chair stopped selling. Larry Ellison cancelled his Rule 10b5-1 plan to sell Oracle stock on 12 September; no shares had been sold under it.

Origin: Oracle Form 8-K, 14 Sep 2026 · family: company-issued · E5 for the fact · accepted at low weight: an insider not selling is a signal, not a cash flow

Editorial — outside the evidence Six accepted this month against seven last month. The defence's best entry is again the one that is paid for in cash. The worst thing it has to offer is that a man did not sell. We included it anyway, because the register's rule is that it does not choose.

SECTION 8

The record

Calls open: 6 · Correct: 0 · Wrong: 0 · Resolved this filing: 0 · Entered this filing: 2

P-01 · resolves 31 Dec 2026 · open

At least one of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle or CoreWeave will disclose a change to the useful life of servers or network equipment before 31 December 2026.

Checked this cycle: Oracle's 10-Q, the only periodic report by a tracked filer in September, keeps servers at six years. Not yet due; not yet triggered.

P-02 · resolves 30 Jun 2027 · open

ERCOT's large-load gigawatts under review will be revised down by 20% or more without a corresponding reduction in publicly announced capacity.

Checked this cycle: ERCOT's provisional list covers 194.3 GW and its verification report is due 10 December 2026, which is the first checkpoint. The provisional list is not the whole queue, so no revision can yet be computed. Not yet due.

P-03 · resolves 31 Jul 2027 · open

Nvidia's disclosed maximum gross guarantee exposure will exceed $150bn in a filing published on or before 31 July 2027, against $108.5bn disclosed on 26 August 2026.

Checked this cycle: no new Nvidia guarantee disclosed in September. Not yet due.

P-04 · resolves 31 Aug 2027 · open

ERCOT will authorise fewer than 10 GW of new large computational load to energise between 1 September 2026 and 31 August 2027 — that is, the Batch Zero verification pause will bind rather than clear.

Checked this cycle: the 3 September conditional classification explicitly sets no energisation date. Not yet due.

P-05 · resolves 31 Dec 2026 · entered this filing

PJM will not publish results of its Reliability Backstop Procurement on or before 31 December 2026, after FERC's order of 29 September 2026 rejected elements of the plan.

P-06 · resolves 31 Dec 2026 · entered this filing

Oracle's remaining performance obligations at 30 November 2026, as reported for Q2 FY27, will be below $700bn, against $664bn at 31 August 2026.

Six open, none resolved, none due. Two of the new calls resolve inside four months, which is quick enough to be embarrassing. Every subsequent filing opens with this section, including the entries we would prefer to lose.

SECTION 9

Verdict

Strengthened.

One word, one reason: the month produced the register's first market price on a loan inside the loop — an $18bn construction loan on Oracle's Project Jupiter, reported at 89–91 cents after Oracle served a force majeure notice — in a quarter when Oracle's backlog rose $26bn to $664bn, its capital expenditure ran at 3.4 times last year's, its free cash flow was negative $5bn and $19.9bn of the gap was funded by selling stock.

Recorded against that, and not deducted from it: Oracle's revenue rose 30% and its cloud infrastructure revenue 121%, the New Mexico Supreme Court lifted its stays on Jupiter on 17 September, SoftBank repaid $25.9bn of its OpenAI bridge early, and FERC and ERCOT are each declining to take the load on trust. The strengthening is narrow: the loan price is secondary reporting, and the notice may be as precautionary as Oracle says.

The machine still works. One of its loans no longer trades at par.

Interests and conflicts — permanent, every filing

The publisher's family office holds thematic positions in AI infrastructure. It believes the bet may pay. That belief is the reason this filing records the plumbing rather than predicting a collapse, and readers should weigh it accordingly.

This filing was drafted with the assistance of a large language model made by Anthropic. Anthropic is financed in part by Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia and Google. Google backstops lease payments at five of Anthropic's data-centre locations. Four of those five parties appear in this filing as subjects.

Updated this filing. Amazon appears this month as the issuer of £4.25bn of notes (Section 2), and Microsoft as the filer of a segment change (Section 6); both are financiers of Anthropic per the paragraph above. No new Anthropic financing relationship was verified in September, and Anthropic is not a subject of any evidence entered this month. That is a statement about this desk's coverage, not a clean bill.

The instrument used to draft the register is inside the register. Origin family: the same one. We disclose it here rather than being asked about it later.